NATO-Russia relations: Impacts on global geopolitical risk

Russia's reaction to the trilateral statement of intent between Sweden, Finland and the United States

In July 2016, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that if Finland joined NATO, it would result in military action. In October 2017, the Russian ambassador to Finland cautioned that such an accession would have serious consequences for their bilateral relations. However, Finland and Sweden are often described as de facto NATO members due to their close cooperation with the alliance. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine significantly increased support for NATO membership in both Scandinavian countries, resulting in a joint NATO application in May 2022, and the consequent official invitation to join NATO in June 2022. Finland formally became a NATO member state on April 4, 2023. Sweden’s NATO accession has been delayed, but is likely in the one-year outlook. The trilateral statement of intent was seen as unlikely to provoke a significant response from Russia, and this was demonstrated by the lack of military response from Russia since the Finnish accession into NATO. Russia is likely to intend to militarize the Arctic or the Kaliningrad exclave in the Baltics. However, it is unlikely to possess immediate military capabilities for as long as kinetic fighting in Ukraine is ongoing.

Escalating crisis on the EU-Belarus border

The de facto president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko extended his rule in 2020 in a disputed election that the EU believes was characterized by intimidation and violent repression of peaceful protesters, opposition members, and journalists. Since October 2020, the EU has imposed restrictive measures against Belarus. The EU Council introduced a ban on the overflight of EU airspace and access to EU airports by Belarusian carriers, after the forced landing of a Ryanair flight in 2021 that overflew Belarus on the way from Greece to Lithuania.

In June 2021, Belarus started to organize flights and internal travel to facilitate the transit of migrants toward the EU, crossing the border irregularly, to Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. The EU and NATO consider the transit of migrants as a hybrid attack, intended to destabilize the situation on the EU borders and within the EU. While most of the crisis ended by late 2021 due to a sharp reduction in the number of direct air links between Belarus and the countries in the Middle East region, attempts by irregular migrants to cross into the EU continue. The potential militarization of the conflict is rising. Belarus and Russia organized large-scale military maneuvers close to the border with Poland in 2021. Belarus also provided Russia with a staging ground for the military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. These actions precipitated further sanctions against individuals associated with the leadership in the Belarusian capital of Minsk, with even more sanctions likely if Belarus joins the Russia’s war in Ukraine directly.

Territorial and security conflicts with Ukraine

In early February of  2022, relations between Russia and NATO reached a state of crisis. Russia had deployed up to 190,000 troops along the Russian and Belarusian border with Ukraine, warning that it was prepared to use military force to achieve its goals. Following the start of the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, relations between Russia and NATO have reached a nadir. In response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, the US, EU, UK and Canada have imposed a wide range of sanctions, aimed at reducing Russia's ability to finance its war of territorial conquest.

Meanwhile, Russia has responded to western sanctions by seeking closer bilateral relations with China. Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia and China signed significant deals for the supply of oil and gas, which include Rosneft Oil Co. and China National Petroleum Corp.'s agreement for supplies of 100 million metric tons, or 200,821 barrels per day, and for 10 Bcm per year of gas, according to S&P Global Platts.

Russia and Ukraine War: More Than One Year On

The Russia-Ukraine war has been ongoing for more than 15 months. According to analysts, the Russian strategy appears to be focused on undermining the Ukrainian population's support for resisting the invasion by bombing civilian targets and infrastructure. Since early October 2022, Russia has intensified missile and unmanned aerial vehicle strikes on cities across Ukraine, targeting critical national infrastructure in dozens of swarm missile attacks. Although Ukraine claims to have intercepted up to 90% of these attacks with its air defenses, the strikes have caused significant damage, reducing power generation capacity by up to 50% and causing large-scale blackouts. Despite these attacks, a February 2023 Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll revealed that 87% of respondents in Ukraine still support continued resistance to Russia and were against territorial concessions to Russia.