2020 U.S. Election Outlooks

U.S. Election Likely to Have Minor Impact on Consumer Spending – survey

The U.S. presidential election in November is expected to have a minor impact on consumer discretionary spending over the next three months but the coronavirus crisis continues to weigh heavily on people's minds and purchasing decisions, according to a new survey by 451 Research, an offering of S&P Global Market Intelligence.

U.S. Recovery Flashing Warning Signs Ahead of Last Jobs Report Before Election

The U.S. jobs recovery faces a double drag from the persistence of the pandemic and a lack of additional federal stimulus as the government is set to report the last official unemployment that rate voters will see before the election.

Too Close to Call—The Impact of Election Results on High-Yield Returns

This analysis explores two aspects of the upcoming election. First is the historical record of the immediate price impact of the outcome, with a focus on which party's candidate emerges victorious. The second focus is historical high-yield returns by party during presidential returns.

How A Big Election Win For The Democrats Could Affect U.S. Telecom And Cable Companies

S&P Global Ratings believe the biggest risk is the potential for price regulation of cable providers, while the potential for increased funding for broadband provides some opportunities for operators to benefit.

U.S. Regulated Utilities' Credit Metrics Could Strengthen Under Proposed Biden Tax Plan

The espoused tax plan of U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would likely improve the U.S. regulated utility industry's financial measures if implemented.

Consumer Companies Paid Lower Tax Rates Under Trump, Could See Hikes with Biden

Corporate taxes dropped for consumer companies, among others, following the passage of the 2017 tax reforms championed by President Donald Trump. A Joe Biden presidency, meanwhile, promises to roll back many of the Trump tax cuts while keeping rates below where they sat under previous administrations.

Biden Would Offer Stable, Tech-Focused Future for Auto Industry–Experts

A Joe Biden presidency would give the auto industry a more stable future focused on forward-looking technology like electrification and autonomous driving, while a continuation of the Donald Trump presidency would push for more traditional car manufacturing in the U.S., experts say.

Earnings Hit from Biden Tax Hike Seen Offset by Stimulus if Dems Sweep Congress

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's plan to raise corporate tax rates should he win the White House might not be so bad for the stock market, as long as Democrats gain control of both houses of Congress as well.

That would allow him to push through a larger stimulus bill than is likely under either a second term for President Donald Trump or a split Congress alongside a President Biden, economists and analysts told S&P Global Market Intelligence.

S&P 500 Points to Tight U.S. Election, if History is a Guide

Since 1944, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election could be predicted with a high level of confidence by looking at the performance of the S&P 500 over the three months preceding polling day.

Sectors and Electors

Markets expect elevated volatility surrounding the U.S. Presidential election, now just six weeks away. The VIX futures curve currently peaks in November, but as long ago as April a close observer could detect expectations of electoral volatility. Increased volatility may create an unusual opportunity for sector allocators.

Biden Victory Seen Weighing on Dollar Already at 2.5-Year Low

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden could end up getting the weak dollar that President Donald Trump craved for much of his first term in office.

Political Polarization Creating Regulatory 'Ping-Pong Effect' for U.S. Energy

As the US political climate has grown more polarized, the energy sector has faced increasingly significant shifts on the regulatory front every four to eight years, and the industry may have to ready itself for another pendulum swing after the November presidential election.

Results in Down-Ticket Races Provide Energy Industry Some Election Certainty

While federal-level election results remained uncertain the morning after the Nov. 3 U.S. election, a number of state-level races and ballot initiatives with energy industry impacts had been decided.

Host of Energy Issues Settled, but Counting Continues for President

The winner of the White House and control of the US Senate remained unknown early Nov. 4 as mail-in ballots continued to be counted, but implications for energy and commodity markets unfolded in local and state races across the country.

Eying Pennsylvania, Trump Officials Pound on Energy Themes

The Trump administration is hoping that a pro-drilling message will give it an edge in the tight race for Pennsylvania votes, with top officials visiting the state and campaign surrogates pouncing on Democratic challenger Joe Biden's comments about transitioning away from oil.

Biden Plan to Make Companies Disclose Climate Risks Key to Decarbonization

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has pledged to make publicly traded companies disclose their climate risks and emissions levels, a move experts say could help companies, investors and regulators make better-informed decisions and pursue decarbonization targets.

Potential Split U.S. Government Puts Energy Policy in Agencies' Court

With major national election outcomes still in flux Wednesday morning, energy lobbyists and policy analysts were parsing the potential for divided government to dampen energy policy shifts, even if Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden ultimately prevailed.

Biden Victory Could Push Mexico Closer Toward Green Energy

If Joe Biden wins the U.S. presidency in November, he could hasten the country's migration to more renewable energy by enforcing the Paris Agreement and the energy chapter under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Should this happen, Mexico may have to rethink its own current hydrocarbon-focused energy strategy.

Trump Withdraws U.S. from Paris Agreement; Future Involvement Still in Question

President Donald Trump has officially withdrawn the U.S. from the Paris Agreement on climate change, a move Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has said he would reverse if he wins the election.

Biden Victory Could Usher in New Era of Environmental Justice Policies

Environmental justice policies could be prioritized like never before if presidential candidate Joe Biden wins the White House next month, which could have widespread ramifications for infrastructure permitting and climate policy.

U.S.-EU Trade Deal Seen Remote Even if Biden Occupies White House in 2021

A new president may not mean a new day in trade relations between the U.S. and its largest trading partner, the EU. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has expressed a desire to work with allies to repair rifts widened under the protectionist trade policy of the Trump administration. Smoothing fractured relations with the EU, a bloc Washington did $851.9 billion in goods trade with in 2019, would likely be a central pillar of this effort under a Biden presidency.

China Slows U.S. Agriculture Purchases Ahead of Election: Analysts

China has slowed down its buying of U.S. agriculture products in recent weeks and remains in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, but the country's grain buying is expected to continue in the long run as it looks to diversify its sources.

Europe, Middle East Steel Sector 'Pricing' in Biden U.S. Election Win: Sources

European and the Middle East steel markets are increasingly pricing in a Democratic win in the Nov. 3 US presidential elections, according to regional trading sources consulted by S&P Global Platts Nov. 2.